Image and conclusions from today's New York Times analysis.
For all the blah-blah-blah, it's really quite simple. Cheeto Jesus has to win Florida. If he doesn't, then he has to win a ton of other swing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado, for instance. Not gonna happen.
If The End of Civilization As We Know It does win Florida, then he still needs a streak of luck to win. For example, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. Or try this one: North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. Not so easy.