Listen up, folks.
August 2, 2021

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I've calmed down enough to make some observations about last Tuesday. I think there's a tendency to see the outcome as resulting from a massive surge in low-education angry white men. The facts don't play out that simply. The facts say that Hillary Clinton lost significant percentages of Democrat core constituencies to the Republican ticket. Hillary Clinton failed at what was supposed to be her campaign's biggest strength: the ground game.

In 2012, President Obama received 93% of the Black vote. Hillary Clinton garnered only 90%. That three percent shift didn't stay home—they voted for Donald Trump. Another significant percentage of the Black vote did stay home—estimated to be 11% higher than in 2012. Hispanic votes for the Democratic ticket dropped from 72% to 68%. Hillary boosted the women's Democratic vote about a half-point, to 56%—not much, considering, eh?

People without college degrees shifted from 52% Democratic to 54% Republican. Those numbers include the working class and the working poor of all races, who voted for Obama twice. Hillary lost them.

A lot of people are angry about how the election turned out. I submit that the focus of their anger should be Hillary Clinton, who failed to motivate traditional Democratic constituencies.